Total annual precipitation has been significantly above average since 2000. The number of very hot days peaked during the 1930–1934 period, while the number of warm nights was highest during the 2010–2014 period. Recent years have seen some of the warmest winter and summer temperatures in the historical record. The horizontal black lines show the long-term (entire period) averages: (a) 22.2☏, (b) 66.1☏, (c) 1.1 days, (d) 5.8 nights, (e) 40.9 inches. Bars show averages over 5-year periods (last bar is a 6-year average). Since 1998, there have been several years when Lakes Erie and Ontario were mostly ice-free (Figure 4).įigure 2: Observed (a) winter (December–February) average temperature, (b) summer (June–August) average temperature, (c) annual number of very hot days (maximum temperature of 95☏ or higher), (d) annual number of warm nights (minimum temperature of 70☏ or higher), and (e) total annual precipitation for New York from (a, b, e) 1895 to 2020 and (c, d) 1900 to 2020. The increase in winter temperatures has had an identifiable effect on Great Lakes ice cover. The state has experienced an increase in the number of warm nights and a decrease in the number of very cold nights (Figure 3). Summer warming is more influenced by the number of warm nights than by the occurrence of very hot days (Figures 2c and 2d). This warming has been concentrated in the winter and spring, while summers have not warmed as much (Figures 2a and 2b). As of 2020, the hottest year on record for New York was 2012, with a statewide average temperature of 48.8☏, more than 4☏ above the long-term average (44.5☏). Since the beginning of the 20th century, temperatures in New York have risen almost 2.5☏, and temperatures in the 2000s have been higher than in any other historical period (Figure 1). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 3☏ warmer than the historical average green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 11☏ warmer than the hottest year in the historical record red shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Temperatures in New York (orange line) have risen almost 2.5☏ since the beginning of the 20th century. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for New York.
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